Economic Forecasting, About the Director

 
  Academic                                                        Economic Thoughts
  Latest Research                                                Op-Ed Pieces
  Refereed Publications                                   Technical Notes
  Non-Refereed Journal Articles                   Opinions
  Book
 
Latest Research
  • With Karsten Jeske and Pedro Silos, "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link", working paper #2008-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, March 2008. Forthcoming in Review of Economic Dynamics [Read Abstract  –   Paper PDF]
  • With Karsten Jeske, "Taylor Rules with Headline Inflation: A Bad Idea", working paper #2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July 2007  [Read Abstract  –   Paper PDF]

Refereed Journal Publications

  1. With Karsten Jeske and Pedro Silos, "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link", forthcoming in Review of Economic Dynamics. [Read paper - PDF]
  2. With Karsten Jeske, "Energy Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(7):357-377, 2008.  [Read paper - PDF]
  3. With Karsten Jeske, "What Matters More for the Output Drop after an Energy Price Increase: Household or Firm Energy Share?", Economics Letters, 10(3):202-205, 2008. [Read paper - PDF]
  4. With M. Lieberman, "Assessing the Resource Base of US and Japanese Auto Producers: A Stochastic Frontier Production Approach," Management Science, 51(7):1060-1075, 2005. [Read paper - PDF]
  5. With J.T. Guo, "Declining Share of Small Firms in U.S. Output: Causes and Consequences," Economic Inquiry, 39(3): 651-662, 2001.  [Read paper - PDF]
  6. "Firm Size and Productivity Differential: Theory and Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Firms," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 44(3):263-269, 2001.  [Read paper - PDF]
  7. With G. Gerdes, "Estimating Technological Change using a Stochastic Frontier Production Function: Evidence From U.S. Firm-Level data," Journal of Productivity Analysis, 8: 431-446, 1997.[Read paper - PDF]
  8. "Asymmetric Information and Debt Financing:  The Empirical Importance of Size and balance Sheet Factors," International Journal of the Economics of Business, 4(2): 189-202, 1997.  [Read paper - PDF]

Refereed Professional and Conference Proceedings

  1. With M. Lieberman, "Assessing the Resource Base of U.S. and Japanese Auto Producers,"
    Best Paper Proceedings of the 2005 Academy of Management Meeting.[Read paper - PDF]
  2. Economics at Work: Georgia State University's Economic Forecasting Center," Business Economics, 39(1): 62-65, January 2004. [Read article - PDF]

Non-Refereed Journal Articles

  1. With Karsten Jeske, "How Resilient Is the Modern Economy to Energy Price Shocks", Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Third Quarter: 21-32,2006 [Read paper - PDF]

Economic Impact Reports

  1. "Predicting Cable TV Industry Advertising Revenues." (October 2004). Report prepared for Turner Broadcasting Corporation.
  2. With G.U. Krueger "Ventura County Housing in Short-Supply Squeeze: How Long Will it Last?" (2000). Report prepared for Amgen Corporation.
  3. With G. Freeman and K. Ackbarali, "Redeveloping Obsolete Industrial Land with Modern Manufacturing Facilities: The Job, Wage and Tax Implications for State and Local Government" (2000). LA Economic Development Corporation policy report.
  4. With L. Kimbell and T. Lieser, "An Analysis of the Impact of Aerospace Industry Downsizing on California's Economy" (1996).  Report prepared for Northrop Corporation.
  5. With L. Kimbell and T. Lieser, "The Impact of Automobile Import Restrictions on the California Economy" (1996). Report prepared for California Automobile Import Alliance.
  6. With L. Kimbell and N. Pedrozo, "The Impact of Future Oil Price Shocks on the California Economy" (1994).  Report prepared for California Energy Commission.

Book

  1. Firm Size, Financial Intermediation and Business Cycles, Commonwealth Publishers, London and New Delhi, 1996, 182 pages.  [Read excerpt - PDF]

Working Papers

  1. With Karsten Jeske and Pedro Silos, "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link", working paper #2008-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, March 2008 [Read paper - PDF]
  2. With Karsten Jeske, "Taylor Rules with Headline Inflation: A Bad Idea", working paper #2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July 2007 [Read paper - PDF]
  3. With P. Jochumzen, "Stochastic Frontier Production Function with Errors-in-Variables," working paper #99-07, Lund University, Sweden. Under review at Journal of Econometrics.  [Read paper - PDF]
  4. "Firm Size, Credit Market Imperfections and the Business Cycle."
  5. "Credit Market Risk and Small Firm Share: A Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis."
  6. With M. Lieberman, "Comparative Efficiency of U.S. and Japanese Automakers: A Stochastic Frontier Production Analysis," working paper, Center for International Business Economic Research, Anderson Graduate School of Management.
  7. With J. Prabhu, "The Competitive Advantage of Being Small: A Strategic, Efficiency Versus Risk Approach".
Economic Thoughts

Op-Ed Pieces

  • "Airline Service: Delta Buyout Bid Bodes Well For City", published in the Atlanta Journal - Constitution, January 18, 2007.
  • "Big Airlines Ought to Stop Flying Solo", published in the Atlanta Journal - Constitution, December 9, 2004

Technical Notes

  • "Elasticity of Hiring at Firm Level", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, November 2004
    [view pdf] [view html]
  • "What Produces Jobs: A Statistical Analysis", excerpt from Forecast of the Nation, August 2004
    [view pdf] [view html]

Opinions

        2006

  • "An Afterthought on GM", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, August 2006 [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Bet on the Stewardship of the Fed", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, August 2006
    [view pdf] [view html]
  • With Kristin W. Diver "Why Georgia Depends on Delta", August 2006 [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Why are Oil Prices So High?", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation,May 2006 [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Why Haven't High Oil Prices Produced a Recession", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, May 2006 [view pdf] [view html]

        2005

  • "Oil Shocks and Energy Conservation", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, November 2005
    [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Housing Bubble Myths: Florida and California", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, November 2005 [view pdf] [view html]
  • With Kristin W. Diver "Delta: Past, Present and Future", November 2005 [view pdf] [view html]
  • "A Quick and Dirty Analysis of the Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the US, the Southeast and Georgia", September 2005 [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Oil: Myths, Realities and Conjectures", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, August 2005
    [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Housing Bubble: Reality and Solutions", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, August 2005
    [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Who is engaged in a Trade related Faustian Bargain?", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, June 2005 [view pdf.][view html]
  • "Is GM Just in Business to Pay their Worker's Pension?", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, June 2005 [view pdf.][view html]
  • "Portfolio Implications from the May 2005 Forecast", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, June 2005 [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Why Outsourcing Scares the Middle Class?", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, February 2005 [view pdf][view html]
  • With Kristin W. Diver: "BRAC 2005: The Looming Georgia Storm", excerpt from the Forecast of Georgia and Atlanta, February 2005
    [view pdf][view html]

        2004

  • "Bill Gross and His Beef with the CPI Index", excerpt from the Forecast of the Nation, November 2004 [view pdf] [view html]
  • "Will Any President Before 2012 Solve the Deficit Problem?", excerpt from the Nation, November 2004 [view pdf] [view html]

Academic Activities

Conference Presentation

  1. June 2008, Western Economic Association Meetings in Honolulu.
  2. July 2005, Western Economic Association Meetings in San Francisco.
  3. June 2001, 22nd International Symposium on Forecasting in ATlanta
  4. August 2000, 8th World Congress of the Econometric Society in Seattle.
  5. July 2000, Society for Computing in Economics and Finance meetings in Barcelona, Spain.
  6. August 1999, 12th World Congress of the International Economic Association in Argentina.
  7. October 1998, Third Biennial Georgia Productivity Workshop at University of Georgia.
  8. June 1998, North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society in Montreal.
  9. May 1998, EKONOMETRGAR 98 (Econometrics Conference) at University of Lund, Sweden.
  10. July 1997, Western Economic Association Meetings in Seattle.
  11. January 1997, Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society in New Orleans.
  12. December 1996, South-East Asian Econometric Meetings in India.
  13. August 1995, 7th World Congress of the Econometric Society in Tokyo.
  14. June 1994, Society for Economic Dynamics and Control meetings in Los Angeles.

Refereed For

  1. Contemporary Economic Policy
  2. International Journal of the Economics of Business
    3.
  3. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
  4. Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization
  5. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
  6. Journal of Financial Research
  7. Pacific Basin Finance Journal
  8. Review of Development Economics
  9. Southern Economic Journal